UFC / MMA Forecasts

How an issued selection appears

An issued market panel names the selection, its captured FanDuel American odds, the estimated probability and the probability rating saved at issuance. The full as-issued rationale appears in the same fight panel.

Current market coverage

Reading issued markets.

Science gate

Reading the sealed science-gate state.

MMA production is fail-closed. A joint P(WINNER, METHOD, TIME) release can publish only after it beats matched-time FanDuel on the required proper scores, its event-level confidence interval is fully below zero, and the exact release is authorized for production. Otherwise the card remains status-only.

Probability is not betting value

Weak, Moderate, Strong and Elite are probability tiers saved only for an issued position; they are not certifications of profitability. A high win probability does not establish value at a particular price. Captured prices are historical observations, not live offers.

Issuance integrity

Reading the current issuance state.

The website reads the saved issuance. Display changes do not recalculate probabilities, replace selections, or rewrite the issue time. Separately marked research is never an official issuance.

Rationale and evidence

The rationale is retained as issued. Historical measurements, model features and missing-history defaults are different kinds of information: a default is not an observed performance statistic, and a missing UFC history does not mean a fighter has no professional experience.

Results and event timing

The workflow is event-based: T-3 prepares facts three hours before the first scheduled bout, T-2 runs two hours before that bout, and the grader runs at 7:00 AM Eastern the next morning. Off-event days do not run a grader. A recovery issuance retains its actual timestamp. The Results page distinguishes recorded picks from posted grades and does not count pending outcomes as wins or losses.